sixball

I have told my little sister that I don’t believe my young nephews will ever learn to drive. Why?

Self-driving cars are reasonably safe and getting safer.

Touched on this briefly ages ago: https://sihammond.medium.com/why-citymapper-will-be-bigger-than-uber-xxxxl-942c87fda71c

Positive feedback loops will push human drivers off the road.

When I learnt to drive, a key principle was to behave in a predictable way and clearly signal my intentions. An AI does this to the nth degree and that’s before you even start speculating about ad-hoc proximal communication that doesn’t rely of flashing light. Reducing the uncertainty boosts the efficiency enabling faster traffic, and better flow. The gain will be such that lanes and then entire roads will be designated for self-driving vehicles. These will expand.

Insurance is where safe drivers subsidise risky drivers. Age, gender are already known factors which determine you insurance premium. As automated road systems stabilise, the contrast between the risk of self-driving swarms and that testosterone-fuelled guy who just loves to drive will become ever more stark. Unlike age, gender or other sensitive factors, insurance companies will have no problem aligning the risk with the premiums.

Shared vehicles, whether they look like a songthaew or dolmuş, will be faster, cheaper. If you want a private vehicle, that’ll be a private Uber – cheaper by not having a driver. All these vehicles will follow a protocol. A TCP/IP of the road.